Solving Ryder Cup conundrum an art form, not a science

Graeme McDowell, Lee Westwood, Robert Karlsson, Padraig Harrington and Luke Donald are announced as 2018 Ryder Cup Vice Captain's by Captain Thomas Bjorn (C) during previews for the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth on May 22, 2018 in Virginia Water, England.  Photo by Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images

Completing a Ryder Cup team with four captain’s picks is more an art form than a science.

But if anyone has ideas about how Thomas Bjorn will resolve his wildcard dilemma, vice-captain Pádraig Harrington dropped a major hint when he insisted that form generally trumps experience when it comes to a tight decision in the vice-captains' huddle.

Bjorn planned to sit down yesterday with the Dubliner and assistants Luke Donald,  Graeme McDowell, Lee Westwood and Robert Karlsson to go through his options before he reveals the solution to his Ryder Cup wildcard puzzle from Sky's west London HQ at 2 pm tomorrow.

With Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Alex Noren, Francesco Molinari, Justin Rose. Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood and Thorbjorn Olesen all qualifying automatically, the Dane admitted on Sunday that while he was "pretty set on two or three names….there’s still one little doubt in my head."

Given their recent form and experience, one could argue that Ian Poulter, Henrik Stenson and Paul Casey may be the three he has in mind.

But with the likes of Thomas Pieters, Sergio Garcia, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Russell Knox, Matt Fitzpatrick, Eddie Pepperell and the Made in Denmark winner Matt Wallace also on his short list, getting his decision spot on may well be the difference between winning back the Ryder Cup and losing two in a row for the first time in 25 years.

With a trained account like Harrington, the son of a maths teacher in Westwood and a former mechanical engineering student in McDowell amongst his five assistants, Bjorn has no shortage of number crunching potential at his disposal.

But as Harrington pointed out in a chat with BBC's The Cut podcast as he travelled back from the Czech Republic recently, it’s a lot more complicated than any mathematical formula or simply picking the four players that give Europe the 12 strongest individuals possible.

"The mistake that's made many times is that people seem to think you should pick the best player but that's not the case," Harrington said. "You have to pick the best player for the team, whether that's experience for foursomes or fourballs or the golf course. 

"I think the classic one was when Paul Casey was ranked in the top 10 in the world [in 2010] and didn't get a pick. People thought that was outrageous. Same with Bubba Watson last time. 

"Clearly, he's one of the top 12 players in the US but he didn't fit the foursomes and fourballs and the model they needed. 

"If we were going to pick the best 12 players in Europe, we would just pick is straight off the world rankings system but that's not the case."

In the past, the presence of five rookies amongst the eight automatic qualifiers —  Rahm, Noren, Hatton, Fleetwood and Olesen — would have the European captain pencilling in experienced players like Stenson, Garcia, Poulter and Casey straight away.

But Harrington — Europe’s likely captain at Whistling Straits in 2020 — admits that a European rookie in 2018 is not quite the weak link of yesteryear and that could mean bad news for at least one European stalwart tomorrow.

After all, experienced players such as Westwood, Stenson and Martin Kaymer were amongst the least successful European players at Hazeltine in 2016.

"Traditionally you picked on class," Harrington said. "Picking experienced players to come in and help everybody else as a team. But the last Ryder Cup proved that experience is not always best.

"The experienced players didn't play as well as the rookies. So while it depends on how the make-up of the team, a bigger consideration is given to form. Look at Thomas Pieters the last time round.

"We are not too worried this time around about rookies. The rookies that are in the team are quality players. They don't necessarily need an experienced player to play with them. 

"So it comes down to a combination of the golf course, who suits foursomes and fourball, who do you think will win singles points."