Paul McGinley reckons Shane Lowry decision to embrace the American Dream makes him a serious threat to golf's US Open heavyweight contenders.

The Sky Sports analyst expects only the game's elite to handle a classic US Open test at Torrey Pines, and while he doesn't rule out Rory McIlroy, he sees in-form Lowry as a better bet since he decided to make the US his home.

"To be honest, Shane is the one who is showing the most form," McGinley said. "It's good to see him coming into form and see him make a whole lot of Ryder Cup points. Rory is still going through these changes with his golf swing. I don't know if his game is in the place that it needs to be. He did win in Quail Hollow a few weeks ago, but he won very much with his short game that week.

"That said, Rory's had two top-fives in the last three years around here, so again, that's the type of player it suits. If Rory can find some form and he gets his new swing changes bedded in, this is a test that will really suit Rory."

As for Lowry, McGinley sees a man who is playing with form and confidence since he made up his mind to establish a US base earlier this year.

"I think that's been a weight off his shoulders," McGinley said of Lowry's US move and his run of three top-10 finishes in his last four starts, including the PGA Championship and the Memorial.

"I think Covid has pushed him down that road, and he's thinking, yeah, I can live in America, and it's actually quite nice over here, and I've got a nice lifestyle, and Wendy is happy.

"I just think he's a guy was just getting better and better and more comfortable on the PGA tour. I'm getting more comfortable in this game, and his game is starting to get tailored more about playing the test the US Open or the PGA Tour presents."

As for McIlroy, he insists it's far too soon to write him off as a serious Major contender despite a near seven-year drought.

"I don't think we're near that yet," he said. "He's still in his early 30s. You certainly can't dismiss Rory McIlroy. I certainly wouldn't be discounting him this week. It's a test that will suit a Rory McIlroy if he finds a bit of form."

He's praying the USGA resists the temptation to pair the feuding Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau, fearing the Mad Scientist could be heckled.

"There's no doubt that he got quite a lot of it at Memorial, and I thought Brooks crossed the line when he went on social media and kind of encouraged them by saying if you do get kicked out, don't worry, there's a case of beer I'll put up for prizes if anybody is escorted off," McGinley said.

"I didn't like to see that at all. That's wrong, and we already have enough of the Baba Booey's and Mashed Potatoes and all that stuff going on. I would say the USGA would have extra security out there to try and stamp that out."

McGinley expects a traditional US Open set-up at the clifftop South Course that favours the world's top 10 with Koepka, DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm and Collin Morikawa the obvious favourites in "a heavyweight contest" on a long track that's protected by deep Kikuyu rough.

"I see this is a pretty generic test of the modern game which all of those top players in the world excel at — power-hitting, being powerful out of the rough, great iron play and good solid putting," he said, pointing out that the heavy, humid air will make the course softer than most seaside tests.

Asked mischievously who was the better bet, McIlroy or PGA champion Phil Mickelson, he laughed and said:"Oh Rory, absolutely. Phil doesn't have a great record around Torrey Pines. I know he has lived in San Diego most of his life, and he is familiar with the test, but he is 51 years of age.

"I know he has won a major, but I'd say there's been a lot of energy drained from him the last two or three weeks with the excitement of everything that's gone on. He's not particularly a fan of the Rees Jones design changes, and he doesn't have a brilliant record around the course.

"It's very hard to put Phil ahead of Rory. Rory would be one of the favourites, to be honest. If he can find some little bit of form and beds down the changes he's making with Pete Cowen, this is a golf course and test that will really suit a Rory McIlroy. I certainly wouldn't discount him from having a very good week this week.

"It wasn't crazy to see Phil winning around Kiawah Island. It wasn't crazy to see Padraig performing well around Kiawah Island because that was the exam — it was a test of guile.

"Experience was a big thing, the short game was a big thing. This is a very different test to Kiawah Island, and I am really expecting to see one of the top players in the world come to the fore this week, particularly the bigger hitters at the top of the world rankings.

"Whoever hits a lot of fairways and a lot of greens this week will be the winner because you don’t have to putt lights out on tricky, poa annua greens."

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